The US tech giant NVIDIA has largely remained shut out of China's market for advanced AI chips, as US export controls have restricted sales due to national security concerns.

High-performance processors such as the H100 and H200 were barred, forcing NVIDIA to develop downgraded alternatives tailored for Chinese customers instead of flagship products.

A shift in policy emerged after President Donald Trump announced that H200 chip sales to China could proceed following a licensing review and a proposed 25% fee. The decision reopened a limited pathway for exporting advanced US AI hardware, subject to regulatory approval in both Washington and Beijing.

If authorised, the H200 shipments would represent the most powerful US-made AI chips permitted in China since restrictions were introduced. The move could help NVIDIA monetise existing H200 inventory while easing pressure on its China business as it transitions towards newer Blackwell chips.

Strategically, the decision may slow China's push for AI chip self-sufficiency, as domestic alternatives still lag behind NVIDIA's technology.

At the same time, the policy highlights a transactional approach to export controls, raising uncertainty over long-term US efforts to contain China's technological rise.